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News & Press: Industry News

UCLA California Forecast

Tuesday, March 19, 2019  
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UCLA Anderson Forecast has revised housing starts downward in 2019 and 2020, with a recovery in building beginning in 2021. UCLA Anderson Forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg focuses on changes in the housing market that present a conundrum. “Home prices are falling in California, as is the level of building, and mortgage rates are higher, yet the fundamentals would suggest that there would be a surge in buying,” he notes. The upshot may be weaker housing markets into 2020. Concurrently, the state’s job growth remains strong. California’s average unemployment rate is expected to rise to an average of 4.5 percent in 2019 with slower national economic growth, and then subside to 4.3 percent in 2020 and 2021.

Home building will be lower by 4,000 to 5,000 units per year than previously forecast for the next two years but will accelerate to about 148,000 units per year by the end of the forecast horizon in 2021. This will be a response to easing zoning and regulatory requirements for developers, and an expected reduction in interest rates by 2021.

California Land Title Association


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